כך תיראה החללית של spaceX

WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR SPACEX IN 2019



If you thought 2018 was incredible for SpaceX, you have another thing coming. Let’s just remind ourselves a bit of few important bits that happened in 2018. First ever launch of Falcon heavy early in in 2018, followed by historic first when SpaceX launched 64 satellites in one single launch, Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket, fully reusable first stage was rolled out and will become mainstay of SpaceX launches. A same falcon 9 booster was flown 3 times this year, and this was most successful year for SpaceX in number of launches and revenue. SpaceX also secured first space travellers who will fly around the Moon. Yes there was also a slight mishap, towards the end of 2018 but overall it was very exciting year for SpaceX. 
You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! As famous song goes, SpaceX in 2019 has big plans, first there are at least 22 rocket launches planed, potentially 3 back to back launches with Falcon Heavy, could happen in the first half of 2019, with launches scheduled in March, April and June. 

SpaceX Crew Dragon launch to ISS will debut early in January, this is unscrewed mission delayed few times, around 18th of January DM-1 or Demonstration 1 mission will see Crew Dragon dock with the ISS. The Crewed mission is expected to follow suit sometimes in mid-2019. Ultimately Crew Dragon and Boeing’s CST-100 crewed missions to ISS will ensure US capability to sends its own astronauts to ISS. 

Falcon 9 Block 5 will take over most SpaceX launches in 2019 as older versions of the Falcon rocket are either retired or scrapped. Of 20 or so SpaceX launches in 2019, perhaps more notable launch will be a free launch of reused Falcon 9 rocket for Israeli satellite firm Spacecom, a compensation for loss of valuable satellite in 2017. 

In 2019, SpaceX will start laying down plans for manned mission to Mars, from this year onward, most of the SpaceX focus will be on Falcon super-heavy and Falcon Starship. 70% of SpaceX resources will go towards programs formerly known as BFR. SpaceX plans to launch prototype Falcon Starship in mid-2019, with number of hopper flights scheduled for late 2019. The construction on test vehicle Alpha is under-way and you can see my video on it. 

Scaled down SpaceX Starship, supporting only 3 Raptor engines will commence flight testing including extensive hopper tests sometimes in April, these will continue on well in to 2020, however already made a video, so it would be worth taking a look. 

First full scale SpaceX Starship will be built in late 2019 with first test flight of SpaceX Starship scheduled for first half of 2020 if all goes well. SpaceX plans to build at least 2 Starships initially, however by mid-2023, total of 7 Starships are planned, each costing around $320 million, it’ll represent a significant investment by SpaceX. 

Since we’re talking significant investments, SpaceX will also devote some 10% of its resources to SpaceX own satellite startup, Starlink. Starlink is a satellite constellation of up to 12000 satellites, SpaceX hopes to provide high speed internet worldwide, although initial investments likely to exceed $10 billion, SpaceX has secured some $550 million worth of investments in to satellite venture. I’ve made videos about Starlink in the past, so worth taking a look at these to find out more. 

However, and this has to be emphasized, Starlink is designed purely to generate all important revenue for SpaceX, revenue needed for the next phase in SpaceX plans. Which is manned mission to Mars sometimes in mid-2020s. The cost of such mission will be in billions, and although SpaceX could initially fund the very first mission, which is expected to cost around $5-5.5 billion, the ongoing support for the future missions would cause serious strain on the company. Starlink will become cash cow for SpaceX and ensure ready supply of capitol for SpaceX Mars efforts.

It is hard to estimate how much SpaceX plans to spend on Mars colonization in 2020s, some estimates put the overall costs in the region of $20 to 40 billion, SpaceX’s own revenue isn’t anywhere near that figure, with current estimated revenue of less than $2 billion per year. 
Starlink will boost Spacex revenue in relatively short space of time to well over $10 billion per year, with significant profits which could be put to good use. 2019, will be crucial year for SpaceX and its goal of Mars colonization. I can only hope for the best for SpaceX in 2019 and wish them safe and happy journey to the stars.